What We Learn From Bluffing
Photo by Clifford Photos: https://www.pexels.com/photo/person-holding-playing-cards-2444580/
When I first watched Rounders, with the then still fresh-faced Matt Damon, I was awestruck. Not necessarily by the movie itself, although it is still up there, but by the level of skill demonstrated by the character he played. His ability to bluff, predict and plan left me wondering just how it was done. It was a movie moment that was screaming something at me, but I missed it.
Recently I thought on this again and looked into what we can learn from this movie. Bluffing after all is a deceptive tactic, strangely accepted at the poker table, but certainly not welcomed anywhere else. It isn't normally perceived as a lesson on life. But we might be wrong in thinking that. Maybe there's a lesson from Life's book - a page that helps millions of us understand and enjoy the rare occasion when bluffing is allowed.
A recent study found that during online poker games, 6% of participants bluffed considerably more if the opponents' avatars were female. Which alarmingly means that there was a definite bias, or rather a behaviour regarding bluffing purely based on the sex of the opponent. While at first upsetting, it offers an opportunity to learn how we can predict players' actions, on the virtual tables, the real tables and pretty much anywhere else.
It's a man's world - or is it?
Poker, in a way, has always been perceived as a mostly male activity. From gun-slinging cowboys washing down the river card with shots of whiskey (as seen in many, many Westerns), to poker nights with the boys, even to global jet-setting spies (called Bond, James Bond) who decide to take down international arms dealers by – you've guessed it – playing poker.
Casino Royal was spectacularly male-orientated in retrospect, which is largely representative of online players too, making up around 90% of online players. The study continues to show that male players bluff more in general, around 13% more, but when they believe that they're up against a woman, this soars up to just under 20%. That's a 1 in 5 chance that they'll be bluffing.
While this may not seem like such a big deal, you need to think about the scale of online betting. This industry is worth billions, with a predicted market growth rate of 12%. Even if the amounts that are bet - or bluffed - are small in comparison to the mainstream poker tournaments, they all add up. The average difference in bets between men and women rests around $20. It's also worth remembering that online poker is also offered at any time, 24/7.
The movie '21', co-starring Kevin Spacey, is about this very thing – a small number of MIT students capitalising on using the small differences to make big winnings. By knowing the facts, however insignificant they might seem, is a huge advantage.
We also learn about the Monty Hall problem in this movie, where you're hypothetically presented with three doors. One conceals a car, while the other two have goats. After you choose a door, the host – who knows what's behind every door – opens another door, revealing a goat (still not sure why it's a goat). You're then given the option to stick with your original door or switch.
It may sound counterintuitive, but choosing the other door at this point gives you a better chance at winning. It actually adds another 33% of success. As switching doors doubles your chances of winning the car from 1 in 3 to 2 in 3.
So considering that, 1 in 5 is actually pretty advantageous when understanding the dynamics concerning bluffing. Knowing the smaller details is a way to take back the advantage and maybe level the playing table. The other added point here is that men tend to play more aggressively on average. This often leads to impulsive bets or a stronger reaction after losing (maybe more so if to a woman avatar – further implying more frequent bluffs).
Use what's available
Of course, there may be people who understand this only too well. They may put their online avatar up as women (whether they are or aren't) in order to control things better. You should be aware of this. The benefit of online poker rooms is the chat feature, so another tip would be to ask questions, initiate conversation and pick up on responses. Find out who is who and, more importantly, decide on whether they are 'bluffing' in this instance.
The last move to draw a lesson from in this sense would be Oceans Eleven. A movie where there are so many plot twists and what actually happened is you're left in a slight daze. It's a perfect depiction of those in the know, gaining the upper hand on those who don't. And that, whether you agree with it or not, is what poker is – online or otherwise.
And that's the joy of poker too, not taking what anyone says for granted, and using your wits and the tools available to you to gain the upper hand. Well, bluffing is just such a tool and it is completely allowed!
